Friday, March 29, 2013

1Q'13 GDT::Portfolio Quickie Review

It's Friday, yet the stock markets are closed today thus ending 1Q'13. GDT::Portfolio top five: Cray (CRAY; supercomputing) #1 followed closely by Google (GOOG; Informatics) #2; iRobot (IRBT; robotics) #3; Geeknet (GKNT; geeky retail) #4 and Yahoo! (YHOO; Informatics) #5.

The overall health of the GDT::Portfolio can be measured by the fact that Yahoo! (YHOO), Red Hat (RHT), US Airways (LCC), Hanger (HGR) and (AMZN) are #5, #6, #9, #10, and #12, respectively.

GDT::Portfolio was hurt by the recent crash of Aastrom Biosciences (ASTM; #20). In addition, at the start of the 1Q'13 I blogged about how Spire (SPIR) needed to spiral upward. That started to happen, but then it stalled and SPIR ended 1Q'13 at #16.

I've turned near term bullish on Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI; #21) and Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS; #25).

The DJIA made a new all-time high on 5 March 02013. The S&P 500 made a new all-time high on 28 March 02013. The NASDAQ remains well below it's all-time high.

Forecast: I refuse to believe that the NASDAQ's all-time high is going to be a 20th century event. In other words, I believe the NASDAQ will hit a new all-time high sometime in the 21st century. When will this happen? I haven't a clue. The last NASDAQ all-time high occurred with nine months left in the 20th century. It's possible that here in the 21st century the decade is the new century; however, we have been slow to make this transition. If we assume a score is the new century, then the NASDAQ's new all-time high could occur prior to the end of the current decade (i.e. 02020). Note: The NASDAQ closed 02013.03.28 at 3276.52. An increase from this level to its all-time high of 5132.52 will be a ~57% increase.

Thursday, March 28, 2013

S&P 500 Makes All-Time High

Following the lead of the DJIA, the S&P 500 made a new all-time high today (02013.03.28). The NASDAQ still has a way to go before it makes a new all-time high. [Yeah!] I have a hard time believing the NASDAQ all-time high will be an event of the 20th century.

Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI) Reports 4Q'12 Results

Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI) reported 4Q'12 results and the market opens in 30 minutes. The 4Q'12 press release wasn't a pleasant read, so I'm clueless as to how ALTI will do today. Back on March 15th ALTI closed at $2.08; yesterday (March 27th) it closed at $2.84 (intra-day high $2.88). ALTI has gained ~36% in two weeks, so today (02013.03.28) might be a tough day given the 4Q'12 results. If only I had a crystal ball...

I have paused typing this posting to await the market opening... 15 minutes and counting.

The market's been open for 10 minutes and ALTI's day range has been $2.72 - $2.80. Trading volume is already at the trailing-3-month average. I'll probably update this posting when the markets close.

[Update::02013.03.28] ALTI closed at $2.80, down ~1.4% for the day. Intra-day range: $2.60 - $2.84 (previous close). Trading volume was ~40,000 vs. trailing-3-month average of ~10,000. ALTI has a SIR (Short Interest Ratio) of 18+.

[Update::02013.03.28] I read the transcript from Altairnano's conference call. I liked what I read. It would be a huge boost to the GDT::Portfolio if ALTI would become a top 10 stock.

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Red Hat (RHT) Reports 4Q'13 Results

Red Hat (RHT) reported 4Q'13 results after the market closed today (02013.03.27) and in after hours trading RHT is down 7.4% at 2:23pm MST. From the company's 4Q'13 press release.
Operating cash flow totaled $137 million for the fourth quarter and $465 million for the full year. At the end of the fiscal year, the company's total deferred revenue balance was $1.09 billion, an increase of 15% on a year-over-year basis and 10% sequentially. Cash and investments at February 28, 2013 totaled $1.32 billion after repurchasing approximately 687 thousand shares of common stock in the fourth quarter for approximately $36 million. For fiscal year 2013, Red Hat repurchased approximately 2.3 million shares, or approximately $121 million of common stock.

RHT closed at $49.25 on 02013.03.27. 52-week range: $46.34 - $62.75. It won't surprise me if RHT makes a new 52-week low tomorrow.

[Update::02013.03.28] RHT opened at $47.75, down ~4.4%. It fell to $47.50, but at 8:49am MST it was at $50.24, up ~0.6% for the day. Trading volume is 3x trailing-3-month average.

[Update::02013.03.28] RHT closed at $15.56, up ~1.2%. Intra-day low: $47.50. Volume: 10.3M vs. t3m-avg. of 2.2M.

Aastrom Biosciences (ASTM): How Low Can It Go?

Aastrom Biosciences (ASTM) announced a restructuring prior to the market opening this morning and when the market did open ASTM crashed. ASTM closed yesterday (02013.03.26) and today--just in a couple minutes of trading--ASTM hit $0.74. Borrowing from Homer Simpson... D'oh!

ASTM: How low can it go? $0.

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Red Hat (RHT) Gets a Downgrade

Red Hat (RHT) got downgraded by Raymond James to "Market Perform" from "Outperform" yesterday. Tomorrow Red Hat reports 4Q'13 results. RHT closed yesterday (02013.03.25) at $48.99, down ~3.6% for the day. Intra-day low was $47.91. 52-week range: $46.34 - $62.75.

Monday, March 25, 2013

Sold Some Stewart Enterprises (STEI) at 3 $Pi ($9.42)

Stewart Enterprises (STEI) hit 3 $Pi ($9.42) and that resulted an in the execution of a good-till-cancel order. The plan is to own some STEI until either I die or the company goes belly-up.

Saturday, March 23, 2013

Stewart Enterprises (STEI) 3 $Pi; Yahoo! (YHOO) 8 $Pi

Stewart Enterprises (STEI) closed at its high for the day of $19.35 on 02013.03.23. $19.35 is a nickel shy of STEI's 52-week high of $19.40 and seven cents below a target price of 3 $Pi ($9.42).

Yahoo! (YHOO) closed at a new 52-week high of $23.26 yesterday (02013.03.22). YHOO is currently #5 in the GDT::Portfolio. I have placed a good-till-cancel order to sell some YHOO at 8 $Pi ($25.13).

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Sold Some Cray (CRAY) at 7 $Pi ($21.99)

Cray (CRAY) spiked to $21.99 this morning [02013.03.20] and that prompted a 'good-till-cancel' order to be executed. I don't really want to sell any more CRAY shares, but Cray has morphed into a Pi story (buying and selling stocks at increment of Pi prices). Next target: 8 $Pi ($25.13).

It's possible we're approaching Infinite Computing and Cray is in the HPC business.

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Aastrom Biosciences (ASTM); StemCells (STEM)

Aastrom Biosciences (ASTM) reported 4Q'12 results after the markets closed yesterday. Today (02013.03.19), ASTM closed at $1.20, down 8.4%. Volume was 0.88 million vs. trailing-3-month average of 0.37 million. ASTM 52-week range: $1.11 - $2.72.

StemCells (STEM) reported 4Q'12 results prior to the markets opening today (02013.03.19). STEM closed at $1.70, down 2.2%. Trading volume was almost half of the trailing-3-month average. STEM 52-week range: $0.59 - $2.67.

ASTM and STEM are equally weighted in the GDT::Portfolio and both of these investments remain well underwater.

Geeknet (GKNT) Insider Activity

Geeknet (GKNT) saw some insider trading on 02013.03.11. One director sold some stock and another director bought some stock. The director who bought is the company's Chairman and former President/CEO Kenneth Langone. Langone bought 2200 shares at $15.07 per share.

GKNT closed today (02013.03.19) at $15.39. 52-week range: $12.07 - $21.62.

Thursday, March 14, 2013

Bruker (BRKR) and Cray (CRAY) Keep Going Up

Bruker (BRKR) hit a new 52-high of $19.09 yesterday (02013.03.13) before closing at $19.05.

Cray (CRAY) hit a new 52-week high of $20.79 yesterday (02013.03.13) before closing at $20.71.

Cray makes high performance computers, while Bruker makes high performance scientific instruments.

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Bought Some Mace Security Intl. (MACE)

Mace Security Intl. (MACE) dropped to $0.25 today (02013.03.12), so I bought some MACE at $0.30. A couple of days ago I had a posting about how important it was to the GDT::Portfolio if MACE hits a buck. I guess I think MACE will hit a buck someday.

Red Hat (RHT): Good Risk/Reward Ratio?

Red Hat (RHT) took a hit this morning. I didn't know why, but then I saw this at "Citing slowing growth and an overall absence of catalysts, Citigroup takes the tech name to Neutral from Buy. Its price objective, previously $64, is now $56."

RHT closed yesterday (02013.03.11) at $53.14. Right now (02013.03.12 at 8:35am MST), RHT is at $51.00, down 4% for the day. My RHT target price remains at $67.48.

iRobot (IRBT) Increases 1Q'13 Guidance

iRobot (IRBT) continues to strengthen its management team. In addition, the company is upped 1Q'13 guidance.
"Based on strong quarterly results to date in both our Home Robot and Defense & Security business units, iRobot is increasing our expectations for the first quarter of fiscal 2013. We now expect revenue of $102 to $104 million, earnings per share of $0.16 to $0.20 and Adjusted EBITDA of $10 to $12 million. Strong sell through both domestically and overseas is driving sales of our home robots and our strong Q1 backlog in Defense & Security gives us confidence in achieving these expectations."
IRBT closed yesterday (02013.03.11) at $22.75. 52-week range: $16.25 - $28.91. Two minutes into trading today (02013.03.12) IRBT is at $25.13, up ~10.5%.

Friday, March 8, 2013

Mace Security (MACE) Needs To Hit a Buck

Mace Security Intl. (MACE) headline seen yesterday (02013.03.07): "Mace Security International hires another Industry Veteran" via PR Newswire. MACE closed yesterday at $0.32. 52-week range: $0.12 - $0.38. It's possible MACE will not have to execute a reverse stock split in order to stop being a penny stock. MACE at $1.00 would improve the health of the GDT::Portfolio.

Level 3 Communications (LVLT) To Get a New CEO

Level 3 Communications (LVLT) reported that its CEO is leaving. Some investors must have considered this good news because LVLT spiked up on the news. LVLT closed yesterday at $21.37 after hitting an intra-day high of $22.24. Previous close was $20.39. 52-week range: $16.36 - $27.99.

Thursday, March 7, 2013

Google (GOOG) To a Kilo-Dollar? Yahoo! (YHOO)

Google (GOOG) closed yesterday (02013.03.06) at $831.38. I'm seeing more ANALysts upping their GOOG target price to $1000. Unless forced to do so by personal financial reasons, I would not take less than $2000 for a GOOG share.

Yahoo! (YHOO) has been making new 52-week highs lately. Today (02013.03.07) I saw the following headline: "Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer Gets a Million-Dollar Bonus After Six Months on the Job." In a nutshell: Mayer appears to be doing a good job. Kudos to her! Yesterday YHOO hit a new 52-week high of $23.09 before closing at $22.80.

Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Aastrom Biosciences (ASTM) Names a President/CEO

Aastrom Biosciences (ASTM) had a good day today (02013.03.06) closing at $1.29. ASTM was up 7.5 on volume that was 2.6 times the trailing-3-month average. I didn't see any news; however, after the market closed, Aastrom announced they had hired their new President/CEO. Dominick C. Colangelo, Esq. replaces Aastrom's interim CEO. Naming a new CEO removes some degree of uncertainty for the company and that might help ASTM over the short term.

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

DJIA Hits an All-Time High

Moment in time... The DJIA hit a new all-time high today (02013.03.05) of 14,250. If new highs beget new highs, then it's possible we might be in a bull market.

[Update::02013.03.06] Moment in time... Yesterday, 3/5/02013, the DJIA hit an all-time high of 14,286.37 (intra-day). That's nice, but I like that the NASDAQ (at 3,224.13) remains 37% below its all-time high (5,132.52 hit on 10 March 02000). It's possible, but I refuse to believe that the 20th century is going to be the century that the NASDAQ topped out.

Saturday, March 2, 2013

Illumina (ILMN) Spikes Up a Bit

Illumina (ILMN) had a good week. One week ago ILMN hit an intra-day of $48.00. Yesterday (02013.03.01), ILMN hit an intra-day high of $52.50 before closing at $52.22. The last two trading days were up days on increased volume.

Friday, March 1, 2013

iParty (IPT) Bought By Party City

iParty (IPT) closed today (02013.03.01) at $0.43, up ~180%) after it was announced that it was being bought by Party City. I liquidated our IPT holdings and iParty is no longer a GDT::Portfolio stock. Our IPT investment, which spanned 9.5 years, was a break even investment.

Future Day 02013; Nanosphere (NSPH); Yahoo! (YHOO)

Today is March 1st and March 1st is Future Day. The GDT::Portfolio is heavily invested in the future.

Nanosphere (NSPH) got off to a good start today (02013.03.01). At 10:09am MST it's at $2.20, up almost 13%. I was to glad to see Chad Mirkin bought 10,000 NSPH shares at $1.96 per share on 20 Feb 02013. Mirkin is a futurist and Nanophere is one of our investments in the future.

Yahoo! (YHOO) spiked to a new 52-week high of $22.28 this morning.