Saturday, December 31, 2011

Entering 02012 Tier 3 Stocks

The following need to move from 3rd tier to 2nd tier: Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (#21 to #14); iParty (#22 to #17); Capstone Therapeutics (#23 to #16); Altair Nanotechnologies (#24 to #12); Mace Security Intl. (#26 to #15); StemCells (#29 to #13).

The following stay 3rd tier holdings: Isotechnika (#31 to #25); AT&T (#25 to #29); Axion Power Intl. (#28 to #20); Alcatel-Lucent (#30 to #23).

Red Hat moves from 1st to 3rd tier at #24. moves from 2nd tier to 3rd tier at #28. Concast is #27.

The following 3rd tier stocks are liquidated: Digital Angel #27 and Adamis Pharmaceutical #32.

The following is how the GDT::Portfolio should look at the end of 02012.

Geeknet #1, iRobot #2, Google #3, Illumina #4, Cray #5, Nanosphere #6, Bruker #7, Level 3 Communications #8, Spire #9, Aastrom Biosciences #10, NeuroMetrix #11, Altair Nanotechnologies #12, StemCells #13, Kratos #14, Mace Security #15, Capstone Therapeutics #16, iParty #17, LookSmart #18, Hanger Orthopedic #19, Axion Power #20, Trimble Navigation #21, Stewart Enterprises #22, Alcatel-Lucent #23, Red Hat #24, Isotechnika #25, US Airways #26, Comcast #27, #28, AT&T #29.

Entering 02012 Tier 2 Stocks

This posting contains some comments about the 2nd tier of GDT::Portfolio stocks as we enter in the year 02012.

LookSmart (LOOK) at #11 and that is a signal that the GDT::Portfolio had a tough 02011.

Stewart Enterprises (STEI) at #12 is fun because this one of the future low-tech stocks in the GDT::Portfolio. STEI should be a third tier stock.

Level 3 Communications (LVLT) is at #13, but it should be a top 10 holding.

Trimble Navigation (TRMB) is at #14. There have been numerous times when I've considered liquidating our TRMB holdings, but I just can't do it.

US Airways (LCC) is at #15 and that's after the stock lost almost 50% of its value during 02011. LCC ended 02011 at $5.07. LCC needs to a third tier GDT::Portfolio stock. (AMZN) is at #16, but it should be a third tier GDT::Portfolio stock. The plan is to never sell another AMZN share.

Aastrom Biosciences (ASTM) is at #17, but it should be at least #10. ASTM ended 02011 at $1.82, but my average cost per share is $2.67. Huge bummer.

NeuroMetrix (NURO) is at #18. I added to our NURO holdings yesterday (02011.11.30); therefore, I must feel as though the stock is worth buying and holding.

Spire (SPIR) at #19 is a major disappointment. SPIR ended 02010 at #10 and it needs to return to that position. SPIR ended 02011 at $0.63. Yes! It's a penny stock much to my chagrin.

Comcast (CMCSA) is at #20, but this stock should be a third tier GDT::Portfolio stock.

The following 2nd tier stocks need to move to the 3rd tier: STEI (#12 to #22), LCC (#15 to #26), AMZN (#16 to #28), CMCSA (#20 to #27) and TRMB (#14 to #21).

The following 2nd tier stocks need to move to the 1st tier: LVLT (#13 to #8), SPIR (#19 to #9) and ASTM (#17 to #10).

The following 2nd tier stocks should stay in the 2nd tier, but LOOK at #11 and NURO at #18 should swap positions.

Entering 02012 Tier 1 Stocks

The GDT::Portfolio had a tough 02011. I could spend hours writing about the year that is ending today (02011.12.31), but I won't. Instead, I will spend some time studying the GDT::Portfolio to review how is it positioned to prosper some time within the next decade. I think it's possible we'll have exa-scale computing by 02018.

02011 data: DJIA up 5.53%; S&P 500 up 0.00318%; NASDAQ down 1.8%; Russell 2000 down 5.45%.

The GDT::Portfolio is a heavily weighted NASDAQ/Russell 2000 collection of investment seeds (i.e. stocks).

The GDT::Portfolio rankings starting year 02012.

iRobot #1, Google #2, Geeknet #3, Cray #4, Yahoo! #5, Red Hat #6, Bruker #7, Illumina #8, Hanger Orthopedic #9, Nanosphere #10, LookSmart #11, Stewart Enterprises #12, Level 3 Communications #13, Trimble Navigation #14, US Airways #15, #16, Aastrom Biosciences #17, NeuroMetrix #18, Spire #19, Comcast #20, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions #21, iParty #22, Capstone Therapeutics #23, Altair Nanotechnologies #24, AT&T #25, Mace Security Intl. #26, Digital Angel #27, Axion Power Intl. #28, StemCells #29, Alcatel-Lucent #30, Isotechnika #31, Adamis Pharmaceutical #32.

iRobot (IRBT) at #1 is a bit bothersome because our Roomba robotic vacuum isn't doing its job. I am hoping to never sell another IRBT share for under $40.

Google (GOOG) at #2 is--in a nutshell--exciting. To me Google as a 21st century Informatics company. GOOG ended 02011 at $645.90. My 1st GOOG target price is $1,869.37.

Geeknet (GKNT) at #3 is a major frustration and it should be starting 02012 at #1. GKNT ended 02011 at $17.05 and my 1st target price is $30.94.

Cray (CRAY) at #4 is a super risky supercomputing investment seed. Cray is helping enable exa-scale computing by the end of the current decade. The GDT::Portfolio got hit hard when SGI (my other supercomputing seed) died. I'm CRAzY about CRAY. CRAY ended 02011 at $6.47. PSR is at 0.64 and I can see it at 1.92, which puts CRAY at $19.41. I add a few cents to make the 1st target price $19.57.

Yahoo! (YHOO) at #5 is pure frustration. Yahoo! has a great web brand. Yahoo! should not be in the top 10. There is a chance that YHOO will exit the GDT::Portfolio during 02012. YHOO ended 02011 at $16.13 down 3% for the year. To me YHOO is a $52 stock.

Red Hat (RHT) at #6 should not be in the top 10. 02011 was a growth year for Red Hat, yet RHT was down 9.6% for the year. I am hoping to continue to be a long-term investor in Red Hat because it is a FLOSS company. FLOSS is the acronym I use when referencing Free/Libre Open Source Software. RHT ended 02011 at $41.29. Next target price is $67.48.

Bruker (BRKR) at #7 is nice. Bruker makes instrumentation that enables scientists and researchers to see the very, very, very small. I sold some BRKR at $18.07 and $21.45 during 02011. BRKR ended 02011 at $12.42.

Illumina (ILMN) at #8 is strange because it probably should be #1. It's as if we made a quick exit out of the Genomics Age. Illumina lost 52% of the its market value during 02011. I'd be extremely happy if I never sold another ILMN share.

Hanger Orthopedic (HGR) at #9 means the GDT::Portfolio is struggling. If only I could find some more Hanger Orthopedics...

Nanosphere (NSPH) at #10 is highly speculative and investors bailed ship during 02011. If NSPH could break into the top 5, then it would probably mean the GDT::Portfolio as a whole is doing well.

The top 10 is the top tier of three tiers. I'll document the second and third tiers in separate postings.

The following stocks should stay in the 1st tier, but be moved as follows: GKNT from #3 to #1; IRBT from #1 to #2; GOOG from #2 to #3; ILMN from #8 to #4; CRAY from #4 to #5; NSPH from #10 to #6; BRKR stays at #7.

Hanger Orthopedics moves from 1st tier to 2nd tier (#9 to #19). Red Hat (RHT) moves from the 1st tier to the 3rd tier (#6 to #24). YHOO is liquidated. The following stocks move from 2nd tier into 1st tier: LVLT #8; SPIR #9 and ASTM #10.

Friday, December 30, 2011

Bought More NeuroMetrix (NURO)

I felt like buying some stock on the last trading day of the year, so I bought a tiny bit of NeuroMetrix (NURO) at $1.29 per share. 52-week range: $1.15 - $4.20. PSR (Price-Sales-Ratio): 0.45

NeuroMetrix executed a 1:6 stock split on 02011.09.02. There 3.89M NURO shares outstanding with ~22% of them closely held (i.e. NURO has a thin float of ~2.2M).

Balance sheet data: $3.01 in cash; minimal debt (debt/equity ratio of 0.33); current ratio 5:22.

A couple of days ago, NeuroMetrix issued a press release titled "Commercial Milestone 100th NC-stat® DPNCheck™ Order". The following was copied from the press release.

“We are pleased with initial market reaction to NC-stat DPNCheck” said Shai N. Gozani M.D., Ph.D., President and Chief Executive Officer. “Approximately 200 physicians, mostly endocrinologists and podiatrists, in 100 medical practices are now using the device to improve their management of DPN. This achievement comes three months after commercial launch."

I would have liked to bought more, but cash was a limiting factor.

Notes: Web Brands and Stock Market Values

Comparing web brands to market values...

Google top online destination of 2011

Google #1 and YouTube #5; Yahoo! #3; MSN/Windows Live/Bing #4 and Microsoft #6.

Google+YouTube #1; MSN/Windows Live/Bing+Microsoft #2; Yahoo! 130.1 #3,

Market values on 02011.12.30: Google Inc. $208.07B; Microsoft Corp. $218.88B; Yahoo! Inc. $20.01B.

For comparison purposes: Apple Inc. $376.52B; IBM Corp. $219.44B; $79.06B.

Thursday, December 29, 2011

A Yahoo! Tidbit and a Cray Tidbit

Financial Times reported this morning (02011.12.29) that Alibaba Group has hired a U.S. lobby firm to help it acquire Yahoo! Inc. I've lost patience with YHOO as a shareholder; nonetheless, I don't want a major Internet company like Yahoo! becoming a Chinese company. YHOO closed yesterday (02011.12.28) at $15.78. 52-week range: $11.09 - $18.84.

It's been a while since I wrote anything about Cray (CRAY). Today, 02011.12.29, hit $6.66 (it's a number thing). Yesterday (02011.12.28), CRAY closed at $6.60. 52-week range: $4.96 - $8.38. Back on 02011.12.01, had a posting about Cray Inc. titled "Cray's Big Contract Wins Not Priced In" and on that day CRAY closed at $5.99. The posting by Vince Martin ended with the following: "But the company's expertise and strong balance sheet make Cray stock worth owning. Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned." D'oh! At $6.60, CRAY has a PSR (price-sales-ratio) of 0.64. Balance sheet wise, Cray has $2.50 per share in cash and $0 of debt.

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Nanosphere: Must Be More Good News

Nanosphere (NSPH) issued this press release today (02011.12.27): Nanosphere Receives FDA Clearance of Gram-Positive Blood Culture Test for Staphylococcus. Today, NSPH closed at $1.53, up 20.5% for the day. NSPH hit an intra-day high of $1.70. Volume was 1.1 million vs. 0.3 million. 52-week range: $0.89 - $5.54
"With this clearance we continue expansion of our product offering, enabling microbiologists to replace century-old methods with rapid, accurate molecular diagnostic tests," said CEO Bill Moffitt.

Rewind about a week...

On 02011.12.19, Nanosphere issused this press release: Nanosphere Obtains CE Mark for Gram-Positive Blood Culture Test. After announcing this news, NSPH spiked from a close of $1.25 on 02011.12.20 to an intra-day high of $1.55 before closing at $1.38. NSPH closed at $1.30 on 02011.2.21 and $1.27 on 02011.12.22 (the last of of trading since today's [02011.12.27] news).

"With the BC-GP test, clinicians treating patients suspected of deadly infections now have a first-of-its-kind diagnostic tool for detecting a broad array of disease-causing bacteria while simultaneously determining antibiotic resistance within the critical timeframe for making and adjusting initial treatment decisions," said Bill Athenson, Nanosphere's Vice President of International Sales and Marketing.

If only a research firm having a significant following would issue a 'Buy' rating on NSPH.

Babble, Babble, Babble

John Perry Barlow tweeted the following.
Markets can remain irrational longer that you can remain solvent. - John Maynard Keynes

I agree with Maynard!

Now I'll quote myself.

The risk/reward ratio these days: Risk a $1 and your reward is that you'll get your $1 back.

I agree with myself!

People like to make predictions and I is-a a people, so here's a prediction: I don't know if it will happen in 02012 (I think it will), but someday Google (GOOG) will hit a new all-time high.

I'm reading The Lights In the Tunnel: Where will advancing technology, job automation, outsourcing and globalization lead? Author Martin Ford wrote that the following was "worth noting" and I agree. "The meltdown started in 02007. As we are now in 02009, we know that the power of the computers on Wall Street desks has roughly doubled, even as the crises continued." It's now 02011, which means Wall Street's computing power has probably doubled yet again.

[update::2011.12.27] In his book "The Lights In the Tunnel," Martin Ford discusses the Luddite riots of 01812. From on 4 Nov 02011--Difference Engine: Luddite legacy

[update::2011.12.27] Google (GOOG) didn't make new all-time today, but it did make a new 52-week high of $644.49 (previous $642.96). GOOG closed today at $640.25. GOOG all-time high is $747.24.

Thursday, December 22, 2011

GDT::Portfolio Turns 11

The GDT::Portfolio was instantiated eleven years ago today on 22 December 02000 when I took $5,000 and split the money evenly into three investments: Hanger Orthopedic (HGR), Yahoo! (YHOO), and Geeknet (GKNT) [formerly SourceForge (LNUX)].

Over the span of the last 11 years, I've done some additional buying and selling of these three stocks. Today (02011.12.22), GKNT ($16.03), YHOO ($15.99) and HGR ($17.95) are #3, #5 and #8, respectively, in the GDT::Portfolio. The fact that YHOO and HGR are in the top 10 reflects on the overall weakness currently being experienced by the GDT::Portfolio.

The Stocks::Stuffer blog was started on 19 May 02003.

Yahoo! Will Eventually Do Something (I Think)

Yahoo! (YHOO) closed yesterday (02011.12.21) at $15.99, up 5.8% for the day. Volume was 45.1 million vs. t3m average of 28.2 million.

I liked Eric Jackson's "what if?" What If Yahoo! Fired 75% of Its Workforce - Starting With The Board?

I think it's possible that Yahoo! could cut its workforce by 50%-75% without hurting revenues.

And I agree with Jackson when he says:

"The fat, the lethargy, and the delays at Yahoo! have gone on too long. This incompetent board needs to start unlocking value or they need to be removed immediately." -- Eric Jackson

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Nanosphere: Must Be Good News

My last Nanosphere (NSPH) posting ("Insider Sale Recorded") was on 02011.12.08. Press release from today (02011.12.21): Nanosphere Obtains CE Mark for Gram-Positive Blood Culture Test

NSPH closed yesterday (02011.12.20) at $1.28. Opened today (02011.12.21) at $1.35; spiked to $1.55; and was at $1.48 (up 14% for the day) at 11:44am EST. Volume at 400K vs. trailing-3-day daily average of 300K.

Not much short interest in NSPH. 51+% closely held with institutions owning a good percentage of the float. Good news/thin float is frequently a bullish combination.

[Update::02011.12.21] NSPH closed at $1.38, up 7.8% for the day.

Monday, December 19, 2011

Red Hat Reports 3Q'12 Results Today

Red Hat (RHT) announces 3Q'12 results today (Monday, 02011.12.19). Last Friday RHT closed at $47.64. 52-week range: $31.77 - $53.42. Right now RHT is #5 in the GDT::Portfolio. My next target price for RHT is $67.48.

From 02011.09.22... Red Hat Continues To Grow (2Q'12 results)

[Update::2011.12.20] Red Hat's CEO Discusses Q3 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

[Update::2011.12.21] Red Hat (RHT) trades on the NYSE. Yesterday, 02011.12.20, the DJIA closed up 2.87% (and 99% of the stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index close up), yet RHT close at $41.95, down 8.9%. Trading volume was 14.8 million vs. trailing-3-month average of 2.7 million. One month plus four days earlier, on 02011.11.16, RHT hit an intra-day high of $53.09.

StemCells Inc. To Float More Stock

StemCells (STEM) shareholders did not like the company floating more stock. Dilution, dilution, dilution. On Thursday, 02011.12.15, STEM hit an intra-day high of $1.71. The next day, Friday, 02011.12.16, STEM closed at $0.83.

The company anticipated STEM shares getting hit, so prior to announcing the selling of more stock, the company issued a press release having the title: "StemCells, Inc. Completes Enrollment of First Cohort in Landmark Chronic Spinal Cord Injury Trial."

StemCells, Inc. Announces Pricing of Public Offering to Raise Up to $20 Million

From the StemCells Inc. press release...

[...] 8,000,000 units and 8,000,000 Series B Warrants, each to purchase one unit, at a public offering price of $1.25 per unit for gross proceeds of $10 million, [...]

Each Unit consists of (i) one share of the common stock, par value $.01 per share, of the Company's common stock and (ii) one Series A Warrant to purchase one share of common stock.

The Series A Warrants are immediately exercisable at an initial exercise price of $1.40 per share and expire on the fifth anniversary of the date of issuance.

The Series B Warrants are exercisable immediately at an exercise price of $1.25 per Unit. The Series B Warrants will expire at the close of business on the ninetieth (90th) trading day after the date of issuance.

StemCells Inc. executed a 1:10 stock split on 02011.07.06 and has approximately 14.33 million STEM shares.

Friday, December 16, 2011

Aastrom Biosciences: Not Yet a Penny Stock

Aastrom Biosciences (ASTM) has dropped below $2 closing yesterday (02011.12.15) at $1.91. 52-week range: $1.85 - $3.47. The last couple of insider buys were recorded during early August 02011 at $2.11 - $2.36. It would be nice to see some more insider buying at ASTM's current price. Insider ownership appears to be less that one-half of one percent.

Yesterday (02011.12.16) Have Aastrom Shares Finally Bottomed Out? was posted to

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Stewart Enterprises and StemCells: Death and Life

Stewart Enterprises (STEI) closed yesterday (02011.12.12) at $5.80. 52-week range: $5.14 - $8.39. The Short Interest Ratio (SIR) in STEI is a whopping 31.3. Stewart reports 4th-quarter results after the markets close on Thursday, 02011.12.15. If the company exceeds expectations, then STEI could experience a short squeeze.

StemCells Inc. (STEM) hit a new 52-week low of $1.32 yesterday (02011.12.12) before closing at $1.35. Trading volume was 300k+ vs. t3m avg. of 83k+. Today, STEM opened at $1.43 and spiked to $1.78. Trading volume is already 230k+. The last press release posted to is dated 11/28/02011. The SIR (Short Interest Ratio) in STEM is somewhat high at 10.1, but I am not expecting any type of short squeeze on STEM shares.

Thursday, December 8, 2011

Nanosphere: Insider Sale Recorded

I checked to see if there had been any new insider buying at Nanosphere (NPSH), but was bummed to see an insider sale. There is usually only one reason for an insider buy, but there are an array of reasons for why an insider sells.

NSPH had a volatile day yesterday (02011.12.07). Previous close was $1.56; opened at $1.59; hit an intra-day low of $1.38 before closing the day at $1.52. Right now (9:32am MST on 02011.12.08), NSPH is down 5+% at $1.44.

NSPH hit a low at $0.08 on 2011.10.03 and its most recent high was $1.75 on 2011.11.21. 52-week range: $0.89 - $5.62.

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Illumina: We're Living in the Genomics Age

Illumina (ILMN) showed signs of life yesterday (02011.12.05). Previous close was $27.78; intra-day high $32.00; close $29.44, up ~% for the day. Trading volume was 7.58 million vs. trailing-3-month average of 3.04 million. 52-week range: $25.57 - $79.40.

I read this yesterday (02011.12.05): Illumina Climbs on Speculation Gene-Analysis Toolmaker Is Takeover Target. It is no surprised that ILMN's depressed stock price is causing some big companies (e.g. General Electric and Samsung) to take a closer look at acquiring Illumina.

I read this today (02011.12.06): 5 New Buys From Colombia Professor John Griffin. From the posting: Griffin holds 865,000 shares of Illumina, buying the entire holding in third-quarter 2011. The average purchase price per share was $56.80.

Friday, December 2, 2011

Kratos: Is $5.45 a Bottom for KTOS?

I tend to ignore certain stocks in the GDT::Portfolio and San Diego-based Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) is one of those stocks. Press release from yesterday (02011.12.01): Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. Announces Repurchase of 2,000,000 Shares. The shares were bought at $5.45 per share. KTOS closed yesterday at $6.01. 52-week range: $4.61 - $14.77.

Our investment in KTOS has drowned, but I remain optimistic that will eventually float to the top (break even). Right now KTOS has a low PSR (price-sales-ratio) of 0.33. 13% of the approximate 34.4 million KTOS shares are closely held. SIR (short-interest-ratio) is high at 13.2.

Back on 14 November 02007, Wireless Facilities, Inc. changed its name to Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. in order to better reflect its focus on being a "defense contractor and security systems integrator for the federal government and for state and local agencies."

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Yahoo! For PIPEs? I Don't Know

If I've said it 'n' times, I've said it 'n+1' times... Being a Yahoo! (YHOO) shareholder is like being a resident of Peyton Place.

Learned a new acronym this morning... PIPE (Private Investment in Public Equity). PIPE is an investment in a company that results in less than 20% ownership. PIPEs can be Board approved without a vote of the shareholders.

It appears as though there have been two PIPE offerings priced at $16.50 and $17.50, respectively. YHOO closed yesterday (02011.11.30) at $15.71. 52-week range: $11.09 - $18.84. Back in late-September of 02007, my target price for YHOO was $52. These days my YHOO target price is $26 and I frequently think this price is a pipe dream.