Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Cray Expects To Be "Solidly Profitable" For 02012

Cray (CRAY) reported 4Q'11 results after the markets closed yesterday (02012.02.27). Cray.com::Company Reports Operating Profit for 2011 and Reiterates Strong Guidance for 2012 CRAY closed yesterday at $7.88. 52-week range: $4.96 - $8.10.

The "strong" guidance could help CRAY hit a new 52-week high when the market opens today (02012.02.28). Predicting Cray's business results is always difficult and almost every press release contains the phrase "While a wide range of results remains possible for ..."

[update::02012.02.28] It didn't happen until the end of the day, but CRAY did hit a new 52-week of $8.21 before closing at $8.20.

Monday, February 27, 2012

I Won't Sell Any Illumina Shares at $44.50

Illumina issued a statement concerning Roche extending its unsolicited tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Illumina for $44.50 in cash per common share.
"The extension by Roche was expected. An extremely low number of shares have been tendered, consistent with our view – and that of our stockholders – that Roche’s offer does not reflect Illumina’s unique leadership position, business performance and future prospects. We remain focused on continuing to develop breakthrough products that expand existing markets and create new ones. The potential of our industry is enormous, with major new markets emerging in medical diagnostics, reproductive health and cancer management."
ILMN closed last Friday (02012.02.24) at $51.22. 52-week range: $25.57 - $79.40

Friday, February 24, 2012

Level 3 Communications; Geeknet; Aastrom Biosciences

Level 3 Communications (LVLT) spiked yesterday (02012.02.23) thanks to an upgrade by some investment firm. LVLT closed yesterday at $23.51, up 12.6% for the day. Volume was 7+ million vs. trailing-3-month avg. of 1.8 million. 52-week range: $16.51 - $40.05. Despite the 12.6% jump in price, LVLT is still well below its 52-week high. Morgan Stanley upped their LVLT target price to $31, but my target price is stuck at $52.20.

Geeknet (GKNT) hit a new 52-week low of $13.90 two days ago on 02012.02.22. GKNT closed yesterday (02012.02.23) at $14.63, which means our Geeknet investment is underwater. Where's the government bailout line?

Aastrom Biosciences (ASTM) hit a new 52-week low of $1.75 yesterday (02012.02.23). ASTM has been a frustrating investment and it is current underwater. The temptation to add to our position is strong and I might act on that temptation if ASTM falls to $1.50.

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Bruker Reports 4Q'11 Results

If I followed the "invest in what know" adage, I would have never hAD bought any Bruker (BRKR) shares. The following was copied from Bruker's 4Q'11 press release.
"Bruker is very well positioned to capitalize on strong demand tailwinds from a number of important secular trends, including accelerating shifts to post-genomic research and epigenetics, functional and imaging proteomics, structural biology, biologic drugs, a paradigm shift in clinical microbiology, protein and metabolite molecular diagnostics, fast and quantitative microscopy, 450 mm semiconductor FABs, shrinking semicon and nanotech feature sizes, and further adoption of superconductivity-enabled products in research, healthcare and energy/grid applications."

The following was also copied from Bruker's 4Q'11 press release.

"For the fourth quarter of 2011, Bruker’s cash flow from operations was $92.1 million, and free cash flow was $76.1 million. As of December 31, 2011, Bruker had cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash of $248.2 million and net debt of $54.9 million. As of December 31, 2011, Bruker’s Intangible Asset Ratio (IAR) was 13.8% and total debt leverage ratio was 1.2x."

~48% of BRKR shares are closely held. And, according to Bruker's "Key Statistics" page on Finance.Yahoo.com, institutions and mutual funds own 99% of BRKR's float.

Yesterday (02012.02.21) BRKR closed at $15.79. 52-week range: $11.48 - $21.65. BRKR was #8 in the GDT::Portfolio when the markets closed yesterday.

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Nanosphere Continues to Burn Cash

Nanosphere (NPSH) reported 4Q'11 results prior to the market open today (02012.02.16).

Nanosphere Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2011 Results

Cash flow in the fourth quarter and third quarter of 2011 was negative $7.6 million. Cash at December 31, 2011 was $39.3 million.

There are approximately 37,800,000 NSPH shares. Cash per share is ~$1.04.

"We shipped 30 systems to new customers during the fourth quarter demonstrating an inflection point has been reached in our business. The investments we have made in menu expansion, particularly in the microbiology market segment, have generated significant customer interest and demand." -- William Moffitt, Nanosphere's president/CEO

"Inflection point" means 02012 is an important year for Nanosphere.

On 02012.02.03 (i.e. two weeks ago), NSPH hit an intra-day high of $2.13. Yesterday (02012.02.15) it closed at $1.79. 52-week range: $0.89 - $3.89

If Only I Were a Quant

I just got done reading Nanosecond Trading Could Make Markets Go Haywire. It was a crappy way to start the day, but at least it's Thursday. Here is a quoted quote. "We now live in a world dominated by a global financial market of which we have virtually no sound theoretical understanding.” -- automated trading researcher John Cartlidge

Eight days ago (2/8/02012) the following was one of my Facebook postings.

I just went through my Timeline to find this Facebook update from eight days ago (2/8/02012)... Interesting Moore's Law observation from Martin Ford's book "Lights in the Tunnel". The computers on Wall Street that help cause the 02007 economic meltdown had doubled in power by the time Martin wrote his book in 02009. It has been two years since Martin documented that observation and that means the power of Wall Street computers have doubled again.

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

No Yahoo! for Yahoo!; Make or Break Year for NeuroMetrix?

The frustrations of being a Yahoo! (YHOO) shareholder never let up. Yesterday (02012.02.14) Yahoo! announced that it had terminated talks about "selling" its Asian "holdings." YHOO closed down 4.6% for the day at $15.37. Volume was 88.6 million vs. trailing-3-month avg. of 20.1 million. Yahoo! remains a Silicon Valley Peyton Place.

NeuroMetrix (NURO) reported 4Q'11 results prior to the market opening today (02012.02.15). The company has significantly diluted the holdings of existing shareholders to raise cash to grow its medical device business to "diagnosis and treat the neurological complications of diabetes." From the 4Q'11 press release: "NeuroMetrix reported net cash consumption of $1.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2011 and ended the period with cash resources of $10.3 million." Earlier this month NeuroMetrix raised $7.5 million by floating more stock. NURO closed yesterday at $0.91. 52-week range: $0.89 - $3.78.