Saturday, December 31, 2011

Entering 02012 Tier 1 Stocks

The GDT::Portfolio had a tough 02011. I could spend hours writing about the year that is ending today (02011.12.31), but I won't. Instead, I will spend some time studying the GDT::Portfolio to review how is it positioned to prosper some time within the next decade. I think it's possible we'll have exa-scale computing by 02018.

02011 data: DJIA up 5.53%; S&P 500 up 0.00318%; NASDAQ down 1.8%; Russell 2000 down 5.45%.

The GDT::Portfolio is a heavily weighted NASDAQ/Russell 2000 collection of investment seeds (i.e. stocks).

The GDT::Portfolio rankings starting year 02012.

iRobot #1, Google #2, Geeknet #3, Cray #4, Yahoo! #5, Red Hat #6, Bruker #7, Illumina #8, Hanger Orthopedic #9, Nanosphere #10, LookSmart #11, Stewart Enterprises #12, Level 3 Communications #13, Trimble Navigation #14, US Airways #15, Amazon.com #16, Aastrom Biosciences #17, NeuroMetrix #18, Spire #19, Comcast #20, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions #21, iParty #22, Capstone Therapeutics #23, Altair Nanotechnologies #24, AT&T #25, Mace Security Intl. #26, Digital Angel #27, Axion Power Intl. #28, StemCells #29, Alcatel-Lucent #30, Isotechnika #31, Adamis Pharmaceutical #32.

iRobot (IRBT) at #1 is a bit bothersome because our Roomba robotic vacuum isn't doing its job. I am hoping to never sell another IRBT share for under $40.

Google (GOOG) at #2 is--in a nutshell--exciting. To me Google as a 21st century Informatics company. GOOG ended 02011 at $645.90. My 1st GOOG target price is $1,869.37.

Geeknet (GKNT) at #3 is a major frustration and it should be starting 02012 at #1. GKNT ended 02011 at $17.05 and my 1st target price is $30.94.

Cray (CRAY) at #4 is a super risky supercomputing investment seed. Cray is helping enable exa-scale computing by the end of the current decade. The GDT::Portfolio got hit hard when SGI (my other supercomputing seed) died. I'm CRAzY about CRAY. CRAY ended 02011 at $6.47. PSR is at 0.64 and I can see it at 1.92, which puts CRAY at $19.41. I add a few cents to make the 1st target price $19.57.

Yahoo! (YHOO) at #5 is pure frustration. Yahoo! has a great web brand. Yahoo! should not be in the top 10. There is a chance that YHOO will exit the GDT::Portfolio during 02012. YHOO ended 02011 at $16.13 down 3% for the year. To me YHOO is a $52 stock.

Red Hat (RHT) at #6 should not be in the top 10. 02011 was a growth year for Red Hat, yet RHT was down 9.6% for the year. I am hoping to continue to be a long-term investor in Red Hat because it is a FLOSS company. FLOSS is the acronym I use when referencing Free/Libre Open Source Software. RHT ended 02011 at $41.29. Next target price is $67.48.

Bruker (BRKR) at #7 is nice. Bruker makes instrumentation that enables scientists and researchers to see the very, very, very small. I sold some BRKR at $18.07 and $21.45 during 02011. BRKR ended 02011 at $12.42.

Illumina (ILMN) at #8 is strange because it probably should be #1. It's as if we made a quick exit out of the Genomics Age. Illumina lost 52% of the its market value during 02011. I'd be extremely happy if I never sold another ILMN share.

Hanger Orthopedic (HGR) at #9 means the GDT::Portfolio is struggling. If only I could find some more Hanger Orthopedics...

Nanosphere (NSPH) at #10 is highly speculative and investors bailed ship during 02011. If NSPH could break into the top 5, then it would probably mean the GDT::Portfolio as a whole is doing well.

The top 10 is the top tier of three tiers. I'll document the second and third tiers in separate postings.

The following stocks should stay in the 1st tier, but be moved as follows: GKNT from #3 to #1; IRBT from #1 to #2; GOOG from #2 to #3; ILMN from #8 to #4; CRAY from #4 to #5; NSPH from #10 to #6; BRKR stays at #7.

Hanger Orthopedics moves from 1st tier to 2nd tier (#9 to #19). Red Hat (RHT) moves from the 1st tier to the 3rd tier (#6 to #24). YHOO is liquidated. The following stocks move from 2nd tier into 1st tier: LVLT #8; SPIR #9 and ASTM #10.

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